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Unemployment Better Until You Peek Behind the Curtain; Printing Employment Flat with March

By on May 9th, 2012 - Comment

Last week’s employment report certainly put a damper on things. The improvement in the headline unemployment rate, down to 8.1%, was good news. Sure the cake looks great on the outside, but when you cut inside, other problems become visible. The stock markets, concerned about Europe, also took this report as a slowing economy, and…

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Recovery Indicators Mixed… Again

By on May 3rd, 2012 - Comment

The recovery indicators moved decisively sideways showing a continuing weak recovery. The chart is below (click to enlarge). The NASDAQ Composite index was down slightly since last month. It is above its value at the beginning of the recession by 15%, or by 5.26% once adjusted for inflation. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell back from…

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March 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments $7.145 Billion, Down -4.2% Compared to March 2011

By on May 2nd, 2012 - Comment

March 2012 US commercial printing shipments were $7.145 billion, down -$315 million (-4.2%) compared to March 2011. On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$513 million (-6.7%). Because of changes to industry seasonality, March has become the biggest shipments month of the year, which makes these shipments data disappointing. February shipments were revised down by…

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If Marketing Services Does Not Include Apps, then It’s Not Really Marketing Services

By on April 23rd, 2012 - 2 Comments

Any printer not getting involved in understanding “apps,” or those little programs that make owning iPhones and iPads and various Android devices so compelling, is missing out on grand opportunities. That’s especially true for those printers who are, or claim to be, “marketing service providers.” If a business has a web site, it’s hard to…

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Rising Inflation, Deteriorating Worker Earnings, and a Warning About Economic Data Conspiracy Theories

By on April 19th, 2012 - 2 Comments

Increased inflation in both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index has been reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistcis, with both measures increasing at an annual rate of more than 6%. That rate is calculated by using the last three months of data, and is not one that you will see in…

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Unemployment Improves as Workers Leave; Printing Employment Shrinks; A Small Business Setback

By on April 10th, 2012 - 2 Comments

The unemployment rate for March was 8.2%, an improvement from 8.3%, but the statisticians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics chided those who would make a big deal of it by saying the employment situation was “little changed.” The unemployment rate’s actual change was from 8.27% to 8.19%, a 0.8 percentage point change. It was…

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February US Commercial Printing Shipments Flat with 2011

By on April 4th, 2012 - Comment

February 2012 printing shipments were reported by the Commerce Department as flat with 2011, at $6.358 billion in current US dollars. The was the same amount as January 2012 after a -$43 million downward revision. (It looked so odd that the January and February 2012, and February 2011 were exactly the same that we called…

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Recovery Indicators Make a Sideways Move

By on April 4th, 2012 - Comment

The NASDAQ Composite index rose over the past month with the general rally in stocks, and is now almost 7% above the level of December 2007 on an inflation-adjusted basis. Despite setbacks over the past few days, the index is up +3.4% since about this time last month. (click to enlarge chart) The ISM non-manufacturing…

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Profits Winning Streak Over: Industry Has -$276 Million Loss in 4Q-2011; Finishes 2011 with $2.78 Billion in Profits

By on March 27th, 2012 - 1 Comment

For seven consecutive quarters, the US commercial printing industry produced nearly $6 billion in inflation-adjusted profits, and gave -$280 million of it back in the fourth quarter of 2011. It was the first loss since Q4-2009 (-$22 million), and the first one of some magnitude since Q1-2009 (-$470 million). The revised third quarter of 2011…

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Content’s Being Created, but Revenue Data Show that if Content is King, it’s of a Small Country

By on March 13th, 2012 - Comment

The latest Quarterly Services Survey by the Department of Commerce continues to show a rise in advertising agency revenues, and the steady decline of publishing revenues. The divergence shows the dramatic change in media, even though the data series only begins in 2004. Somewhere along the line, the memo that said “content is king” got…

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