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Archive for January, 2013

It’s Claimed Stocks are Making All-time Highs… Not Really…

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

The business press has been writing that stock indices are at new all-time or at highs since the recession. That is, unless you adjust for inflation. Using end-of-month historical closes, the Russell 2000 is -4.48% off its all time high, and just +1.24% since the start of the recession in December ...

Real GDP -0.1% in Q4-2012; But the Report Has Curious Contradictions

Wednesday, January 30th, 2013

GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 was reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as contracting since the third quarter at the annualized rate of -0.1%. Remember, GDP is a bookkeeping exercise that considers a dollar spent on a candy bar as the same as a dollar spent on ...

Updated Inflation Indicators: Are You Looking at the Right Trends in Your Business?

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013

Followers of these blogposts, columns, and presentations are well aware of one of my favorite subjects, the importance of adjusting financial data for inflation. This is always important when there are no unit data available or when companies sell so many products or services that unit data would overwhelming or ...

November US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1.3%; Dr. Webb Issues 2013 Economic Forecast

Tuesday, January 15th, 2013

November 2012 US commercial printing shipments were down -$87 million, or -1.3% compared to 2011. On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down  -$210 million (-3.0%). October shipments were revised down by -$34 million. The final tally for October was $7.238 billion, +$217 million (+3.1%), and on an inflation-adjusted basis +$65 ...

Recovery Indicators Mixed, Economy Still Shuffling Sideways

Monday, January 14th, 2013

The recovery indicators continued their mixed sideways movement. The NASDAQ had a strong month, up +4.3%. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the index is up 16.6%, but that is only +6.3% after inflation, or a little bit more than 1% per year. Proprietors' income, a measure of ...