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Wednesday, February 15th, 2012
A Contrarian Perspective About Economic Forecasts
Of what value to a business owner is a forecast for GDP of +2% for 2012? Not much. What most business owners are trying to understand is this: “Are other businesses experiencing what I am?” They are also wondering: “Is there an underlying trend that ...
Posted in Economics & Research | 6 Comments »
Monday, February 6th, 2012
U.S. commercial printing shipments for December were $6.96 billion. This was down -$207 million compared to December 2010, a decrease of -2.9%. On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$395 million, or -5.4%. The full year was $83.65 billion, down -$393 million, or -0.5% on a current dollar basis, and ...
Posted in Economics & Research | No Comments »
Monday, February 6th, 2012
Last Friday's unemployment report was met with cheers and skepticism, and all because of the annual pre-announced and well-telegraphed statistical adjustments made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were both large and confusing.
Like most statistical pronouncements, the first reports are not as reliable as the revisions made later as the ...
Posted in Economics & Research | No Comments »
Sunday, January 29th, 2012
GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 was released on Friday, and it was +2.8%. On the surface, it looked good, even though it did not meet the expectations of forecasters. The prognosticators had thought that it would be +3% or more, but were disappointed by the miss, and when ...
Posted in Economics & Research | No Comments »
Monday, January 16th, 2012
For the first time since May 2011, all six of the recovery indicators are now positive. Will they stay that way?
In the last couple of weeks, major financial institutions have been releasing their 2012 economic forecasts, and most of them are in the 2-2.5% range, backing off from more optimistic ...
Posted in Economics & Research | No Comments »
Sunday, January 15th, 2012
November 2011 printing shipments were $7.1 billion in current dollars, -$104 million (-1.4%) compared to November 2010. On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$349 million (-4.7%). For January through November, shipments were $76.7 billion, -$181 million for the same period in 2010; on an inflation-adjusted basis, they are down ...
Posted in Economics & Research | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, December 14th, 2011
US commercial printing industry profits were up in the third quarter of 2011, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive results. Though the industry has been going through hard times in terms of sales, rising profits have been a sign of the industry's restructuring and the departure of its weakest ...
Posted in Economics & Research | 1 Comment »
Thursday, December 8th, 2011
Posted in Economics & Research | 2 Comments »
Tuesday, November 29th, 2011
I recently saw and heard reference to print volume increasing or decreasing because of the timing of Federal Reserve quantitative easings (QE1 and QE2) and also print volume being affected by stock prices.
I decided to take a closer look, since prior work on various data series did not show such ...
Posted in Economics & Research | No Comments »
Monday, November 14th, 2011
Random Thoughts About the Economy, Small Business, the USPS, and Generational Extremes of iPad Use, and Other Matters
Soon, Congress' Deficit Supercommittee will report about how they will attack the deficit and the nation's debt. What they do and what they say will probably be shrugged off as the only thing ...
Posted in Economics & Research | 3 Comments »