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Profits Retreat in Q3

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Q3-2014 US commercial printing profits were $1.15 billion, down -12.9% compared to Q3-2014. Q3-2013 was the most recent peak of quarterly profits. The 4-quarter inflation-adjusted profits were $3.45 billion, up +15.1% for that period. The 4-quarter total profits most recent high was $4.12 billion for all of 2013. Since that time, ...

Ad Agency Revenues Rise While Publishing Revenues are Not

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Advertising agency revenues have risen from the inflation-adjusted annual rate of $80.6 billion to $115.1 billion in the last five years. This is not annual spending on advertising in the economy, but the amount of revenues that agencies get from commissions, fees, and their creative and management services.  The chart ...

China’s GDP is Now Largest in the World: But What Does that Mean?

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

China's rise on the economic stage is remarkable. The country is in a vast and sometimes traumatic transformation, with political and philosophical tugs of war underway culturally, socially, and economically. The topics of trade and fairness and freedom are always in the news, but I would rather focus on what ...

Public Relations Employment Strong, Printing Employment Trend Flattens

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

Employment might be down from last year in the printing industry, but it has picked up slightly with the recent rise in shipments compared to 2013. It is not likely to be sustainable. There is still consolidation of the industry in process, and with remaining businesses absorbing the volumes of ...

June to October US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +$1 Billion Versus 2013

Friday, December 5th, 2014

The industry had another good month compared to last year, with October shipments more than $7.1 billion, up $274 million (+4.0%, +$167 million or +2.4% after adjusting for inflation). June through October shipments are up +$1.05 billion (+$404 million with inflation adjustment). September shipments were revised higher by $45 million. The ...

Recovery Indicators Post Another Good Month

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

The recovery indicators had a generally good month, with increases in three of the ISM indicators and the NASDAQ. (click to enlarge) Falling oil prices helped make the manufacturers bullish about their materials costs. The new orders readings are very strong. This should probably be considered carefully as non-US economies are having ...

USPS’ October, More EDDM News, and Other Items

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

Back in July we presented data about USPS' Every Door Direct Mail (EDDM) and noted that the price increase resulted in a decrease in volume. Volume from the second calendar quarter did the same. That +9.4% increase in EDDM prices, part of last year's Christmas Eve exigent ("grinch-like") price increase, ...

Dr. Joe’s Random Thoughts

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

The elections turned out a little different than discussed at Graph Expo, but the effects are the same. There I presented the idea that the races for the Senate might be tighter and that there might actually be a chance of a deadlocked Senate rather than a Republican majority, depending ...

September Commercial Printing Shipments +3.9%; Employment Data Reflect Shift in Media Use

Monday, November 10th, 2014

US commercial printing shipments had a good September, with shipments at nearly $6.8 billion, up $252 million (+3.9%, +$132 million or +2% after adjusting for inflation). Q3 shipments were up slightly, +0.1% on an inflation-adjusted basis. For 2014, shipments are down -1.3% (-2.6% with adjustment for inflation). June through September, however, ...

Upbeat Indicators and Employment Reports

Monday, November 10th, 2014

The recovery indicators improved since last month, with continued good performance in the ISM indicators. Even the indicator that was down, non-manufacturing new orders, is still at a level that indicates good growth. (click chart to enlarge) Last week, the first estimate of Q3 GDP was released, and it was +3.5%. ...