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A Contrarian Word about Economic Data and Forecasts; The US Commercial Printing Forecast 2012-2018

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

A Contrarian Perspective About Economic Forecasts Of what value to a business owner is a forecast for GDP of +2% for 2012? Not much. What most business owners are trying to understand is this: “Are other businesses experiencing what I am?” They are also wondering: “Is there an underlying trend that ...

US Commercial Printing Shipments End 2011 on Sour Note

Monday, February 6th, 2012

U.S. commercial printing shipments for December were $6.96 billion. This was down -$207 million compared to December 2010, a decrease of -2.9%. On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$395 million, or -5.4%. The full year was $83.65 billion, down -$393 million, or -0.5% on a current dollar basis, and ...

Unemployment Rate Drops, Conspiracy Theories Rise, Economy Improves

Monday, February 6th, 2012

Last Friday's unemployment report was met with cheers and skepticism, and all because of the annual pre-announced and well-telegraphed statistical adjustments made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were both large and confusing. Like most statistical pronouncements, the first reports are not as reliable as the revisions made later as the ...

GDP Better on the Surface, but Disappoints; Big Week for Economic Data Ahead

Sunday, January 29th, 2012

GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 was released on Friday, and it was +2.8%. On the surface, it looked good, even though it did not meet the expectations of forecasters. The prognosticators had thought that it would be +3% or more, but were disappointed by the miss, and when ...

All Six Recovery Indicators are Positive: First Time Since May 2011

Monday, January 16th, 2012

For the first time since May 2011, all six of the recovery indicators are now positive. Will they stay that way? In the last couple of weeks, major financial institutions have been releasing their 2012 economic forecasts, and most of them are in the 2-2.5% range, backing off from more optimistic ...

November 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1.4% Compared to November 2010

Sunday, January 15th, 2012

November 2011 printing shipments were $7.1 billion in current dollars, -$104 million (-1.4%) compared to November 2010. On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$349 million (-4.7%). For January through November, shipments were $76.7 billion, -$181 million for the same period in 2010; on an inflation-adjusted basis, they are down ...

US Commercial Printing Industry Profits Rise for Eight Quarters

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

US commercial printing industry profits were up in the third quarter of 2011, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive results. Though the industry has been going through hard times in terms of sales, rising profits have been a sign of the industry's restructuring and the departure of its weakest ...

Inflation Adjustment in the Printing Industry

Thursday, December 8th, 2011



Mistaken Identity: Stocks, Fed Actions and Print Volume

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

I recently saw and heard reference to print volume increasing or decreasing because of the timing of Federal Reserve quantitative easings (QE1 and QE2) and also print volume being affected by stock prices. I decided to take a closer look, since prior work on various data series did not show such ...

Random Thoughts About the Economy, Small Business, the USPS, and Generational Extremes of iPad Use, and Other Matters

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Random Thoughts About the Economy, Small Business, the USPS, and Generational Extremes of iPad Use, and Other Matters Soon, Congress' Deficit Supercommittee will report about how they will attack the deficit and the nation's debt. What they do and what they say will probably be shrugged off as the only thing ...